Sniping - some perspective

[Einion]

I\'ve been meaning to post this to illustrate a couple of points re. score changes and sniping and this seems like an appropriate time. I fully expect posting this will cause a precipitous dive in the scores for this entry but hey, who cares?

Okay first off this started with a rating of 9... at time of posting this sits at 8.1 - 66 votes - 327 views, nothing to worry about, right?

When I checked up on it after posting - with only 2 or 3 votes and before it had been approved - it was at 7.something. I started keeping track soon after when I saw it had dropped to 7.3, out of curiosity for just how things would go; it had been mentioned around that time that one should not worry too much about being sniped, as eventually your mini will recover.

So here\'s the voting history for your amusement and edification:
7.3 - 6 votes - 37 views
7.2 - 9 votes - 48 views
7.7 - 20 votes - 80 views
7.8 - 25 votes - 110 views
7.8 - 26 votes - 125 views
7.8 - 31 votes - 149 views
7.9 - 38 votes - 184 views
7.9 - 39 votes - 189 views
7.9 - 41 votes - 194 views
8.0 - 44 votes - 198 views
8.0 - 46 votes - 205 views
8.1 - 51 votes - 220 views
8.1 - 53 votes - 225 views
8.1 - 53 votes - 251 views
8.1 - 54 votes - 254 views
8.1 - 55 votes - 258 views*
8.0 - 57 votes - 268 views*
8.0 - 59 votes - 280 views
8.0 - 60 votes - 284 views
8.0 - 63 votes - 307 views
8.1 - 66 votes - 326 views

*Have a careful think about these two any of you with a good head for mathematics, I think I know what this represents.

Einion

 

[vincegamer]

Maybe I don\'t have a good head for math then, because I can\'t guess.
It looks like you got a couple more votes in line with the first 40.

More interesting to me is the pretty consistent pattern of one vote every 4.8 views.

 

[Legacy Account]

Errrm, yep. Means buggerall really. A steady stream of 8\'s that gradually brought down the average....???

 

[Ritual]

I really don\'t see what this illustrates. Maybe I\'m thick, it\'s Friday afternoon after all and my brain is not working at optimum speed. :]

 

[Avelorn]

Um. Is it possible to calculate the internal dynamics of the voting? I think it means something if the cmon voting system only uses 1 decimal. But I believe it uses more and rounds off. But hey I\'m just studying socialpsychology.. nothing to do with maths!

 

[Herb the bitter]

Originally posted by Avelorn
Um. Is it possible to calculate the internal dynamics of the voting? I think it means something if the cmon voting system only uses 1 decimal. But I believe it uses more and rounds off. But hey I\'m just studying socialpsychology.. nothing to do with maths!

Yeah, I was figuring hypothetically it could be averaging 8.05 at 55 votes which gets rounded up to 8.1, and then two votes of 8 would pull it down to 8.048 at which point it would get rounded down to 8.0. (assuming my math is correct.)

 

[yaro]

Hypothetically voting:
54 votes - total score 435 - average 8.055 (rounded to 8.1)

vote no. 55 - an 8
55 votes - total score 443 - average 8.0545 (still rounded to 8.1)

vote no. 56 & 57 - an 7 and an 8

57 votes - total score 458 - average 8.035 (rounded to 8.0)

nothing to worry Einion

 

[supervike]

Ah the snipe....

Were any of you forced to go on Snipe Hunts when you were young??

 

[tidoco2222]

And this is the Super Snipe

This is the Humber Super Snipe which is camoflargued to make it harder to detect.

I remember my dad having one of these as a family car and having to help him crank it over in the morning sometimes when it wouldn\'t start.

 

[Orb]

I managed to watch a piece immediately after it got approved. It had no \"pimping\" votes and was a virgin (first ever) entry on the site for the artist. (and it wasn\'t me)

votes: Scores: voted:
1 10 10
2 10 10
3 10 10
4 7.8 1

I have more numbers I wrote down at the time, but they\'re at home. It took a while to recover, with some 6s and 7s creeping in, but it recovered to a fluctuating 9.2 9.3 mini. It was clear the antisnipe algorythim(sp?) had taken affect too.

What does this prove? Regardless of your \"name\" there are weasels and toads who will snipe regardless! BUT I believe you WILL get an fairly accurate score on your mini in the long run. You may not like it, but there you go!

 

[EricJ]

ok, I\'m pretty good at math, but I\'ve staired at your data abnormally long and can\'t figure out what it\'s trying to tell me.

looks normal to me, it went down a touch with 2 votes?

 

[Duende]

I think his point is in the first line of his list. He started the mini at a score of 9 and by the time it had 6 votes it was at 7.3. So what does that make the average vote of the initial voters? Was his pic sniped early or not? (I don\'t have a head for math either, but I\'m sure those early votes had to be well under 8).

Am I assuming right, Einion?

:idea:

 

[hakoMike]

I agree that a couple of snipes won\'t really affect the overall scare, but the score you posted don\'t really indicate a snipe. (Am I correct that sniping is voting very low or very high specifically to hurt/inflate a score?)

an 8.1 with 55 votes is 445.5 \"quality points\" (for lack of a better term... it\'s used to calculate GPA\'s at the univ I work at)
a couple people vote 6\'s, adding 12 quality points. We\'re up to 457.5, divided by 57 votes total = 8.03 score. That\'s a very realistic scenario... someone doesn\'t take a very good look at the mini and votes less than it deserves.


If it had been a couple of 1\'s, your score would have only dropped to 7.9. Not substantially different to the average but most certainly a snipe.

 

[LavronYor]

Originally posted by EricJ
ok, I\'m pretty good at math, but I\'ve staired at your data abnormally long and can\'t figure out what it\'s trying to tell me.

It is telling you that you need to start buying an Ebook that I am working on. Since it is in Igpa Atinla, there will be no copyright restrictions.

Actually, it means that we should vote on who wants to post ID\'s next to their vote. I think it is time to be accountable, even if it means only ten percent of the votes. Ten real votes is better than a hundred with 2 or 3 snipers.

But, that is just my 2 cents.

 

[Tinweasel]

Related in a roundabout way, but I\'ve been wondering why every miniature starts out with an initial score of 6.

This does a service to people whose miniatures would otherwise be very low scoring, and does a disservice to folks whose miniatures would otherwise be very high scoring.

I\'m wondering why a miniature posted has to start out with an initial vote score at all, as it kinda skews things right from the outset, IMO.

 

[Ritual]

@Tinweasel
You set the initial score yourself when you post your mini. This is set to 6 by default, but you can give it any score you want to... Some people give all their minis initial 10s to compensate for expected lower votes, although in the long run this matter very little.

 

[Ogrebane]

What this shows is that originally it was posted as an 8 and got a stream of 7s till vote 9.
Votes 10 - 24 were at 8s
Vote 25 is a 9
Vote 26 -31 are 8s
Vote 32 and 33 are 9s
Vote 34 - 41 are 8s
Vote 42 and 43 are 9s
Vote 44 - 46 are 8s
Vote 47 - 55 are 9s
Vote 56 and 57 are 5s (definite snipe there)
Vote 58 - 62 are 8s
Vote 63 -66 are 9s
Seems pretty straight forward to me. Not sure how the algoryth works tho unless it removed the two 5 votes in which case votes 63 - 66 are 8s.

 

[Ritual]

@Ogrebane
This is just one possibility of votes. Since you only have the mean score (which is rounded to one decimal) and the number of votes there\'s no way to deduce exactly what votes have been given at each point. There\'s several possibilities. The \"suspicious\" votes can be anything from a 4 and a 5 at the worst to two 8s at the very best. It\'s likely something inbetween.

 

[Ogrebane]

Whilst that may be true I tried several variation ie a run of 8s could be 7,8 ,9 and give the same reading but to fit the scores per vote that enion gave it doent vary much from this. But then again statistics are a funny thing. 89% of all statics are made up and 67% of people will believe this.

 

[EricJ]

Originally posted by Ritual
Since you only have the mean score (which is rounded to one decimal)

*statistics geek*

you mean the average of course, the mean is different and of course you couldn\'t round off a mean score