Originally posted by Ichaerus
Originally posted by Dragonsreach
GW has survived for almost 30 Years and I believe that their lead in the market place will not be broken as easily as some market analysts would have us believe. They are no longer in the market place as a gaming hobby, they are selling Toy Soldiers and that is their marketing intent.
I agree with your points on the sales loss from LotR, but I must respectfully respond on the last point (quoted above) for two reasons.
1.) Selling \"Toy Soldiers\" instead of \"Hobby Games\".
Bad, bad move if this is their focus. How many 12-17 year olds will play \"toy soliders\". I believe it is in fact the hobby that gets them into this. One only has to look at the shelves of the local toy store to see how well toy soliders sell today. Also, their independent retailer base in the Americas is declining quickly and they are already beginning to consolidate stores here as well. They are fighting an uphill battle and denying reality as most large companies tend to fall into.
2.) \"Lead in the market\"
While I don\'t believe GW will go away, I do believe they will lose their lead in the market. Just looking at this market segment and the customer base, gives and indication of this. TSR once held the lead, then Wizards of the Coast, then GW. It\'s once again time for someone to take the lead.
Additionally, if you study the facts of the decline of the previously mentioned companies (TSR and WotC) is was the same in both cases - corporate greed and mismanagement (i.e., executives who really don\'t understand the customer base). In both cases, it resulted in inferior products delivered at superior prices.
While GW does deliver high-quality minis, they are not so high quality as too demand a 25%-40% differentail over the market. There publication quality, however, reminds me of 2nd edition D&D, with a lot to be desired.
The one thing to understand with this market, which is both a benefit and bane, is the dedicated player/collector base. It is a benefit because when everyone is playing your game, newer players are attracted via sell through. This is the phenomenon that has made ALL of the leaders in the history of this market. Conversely, it is a bane because when gamers move away from your company, it is most likely you will have turned them off from EVERYTHING you produce.
This phenomenon is what has unseated the leaders before and, after 25 years of exposure to this market, I see it happening again.
Again, I predict that within a 3 to 5 year timeframe, GW will be in a substantially different postion than they are today, unless they prove themselve to be the one company to prove history wrong.
